Table 2

Conditional Probabilities Needed for Predicting Adulthood Obesity

Women


Type

Proportion

Source


P1fa5 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.17

[40]

P1fa3 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.17

[40]

P1fo5 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.15

[40]

P1fo3 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.13

[40]

P2fa5 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.21

[40]

P2fa3 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.09

[40]

P2fo5 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.18

[40]

P2fo3 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.17

[40]

P3fa = P(obese at 21–29y/o – at-risk at 11)

0.69

[9]

P3fo = P(obese at 21–29y/o – overweight at 11)

0.83

[9]

P4fa = P(obese at 21–29y/o – not at-risk at 11)

0.13

[9]

P4fo = P(obese at 21–29y/o – not overweight at 11)

0.16

[9]

P5f = P(obese at 40 y/o –obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.85

*

P6f = P(obese at 40 y/o –not obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.12

*


Men


P1ma5 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.14

[40]

P1ma3 = P(at-risk–intervention)

0.18

[40]

P1mo5 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.27

[40]

P1mo3 = P(overweight–intervention)

0.22

[40]

P2ma5 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.18

[40]

P2ma3 = P(at-risk–no intervention)

0.18

[40]

P2mo5 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.31

[40]

P2mo3 = P(overweight–no intervention)

0.23

[40]

P3ma = P(obese at 21–29y/o – at-risk at 11)

0.69

[9]

P3mo = P(obese at 21–29y/o – overweight at 11)

0.83

[9]

P4ma = P(obese at 21–29y/o – not at-risk at 11)

0.13

[9]

P4mo = P(obese at 21–29y/o – not overweight at 11)

0.16

[9]

P5m = P(obese at 40 y/o –obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.77

*

P6m = P(obese at 40 y/o –not obese at 25–29 y/o)

0.12

*


[40]Coleman KJ, Tiller CL, Sanchez J, Heath EM, Sy O, Milliken G, Dzewaltowski DA: Prevention of the Epidemic Increase in Child Risk of Overweight in Low-Income Schools: The El Paso Coordinated Approach to Child Health (El Paso). Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine 2005, 159:217–224.

[9]Whitaker RC, Wright JA, Pep e MS, Seidel KD, Dietz WH: Predicting obesity in young adulthood from childhood and parental obesity. The New England Journal of Medicine 1997, 337(13):869–873.

Estimated by the authors. [47]

*Calculated from NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study (NHEFS) with 1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) I data. [47]

Brown et al. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity 2007 4:47   doi:10.1186/1479-5868-4-47

Open Data